Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
Over the past 5 years, Moderna (MRNA) earnings per share (EPS) declined 54.1% a year, revenue grew 19.3% a year and free cash flow declined 41.1% a year, with a 10-year average return on invested capital (ROIC) of -11.1%. MRNA stock trades at $191.33. Analysts' average 12-month price target is $115.70 (−39.5%).
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines.
Exhibit A Growth Dossier
| Metric | 10yr | 5yr | 1yr | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book Value/Share GrowthBV/S | — | 27.1% | -29.5% | F |
| EPS GrowthEPS Still negative | — | -54.1% | -6.0% | F |
| Revenue GrowthRevenue | — | 19.3% | -27.2% | F |
| Cash Flow GrowthCash Flow Improving, but still negative | — | -41.1% | 65.1% | C- |
| ROICROIC | -11.1% | 5.4% | -29.7% | F |
Exhibit B Valuation Ledger
- Current EPS
- -$7.98
- Historical Avg P/E
- 8.4
- Future P/E (used for sticker price)
- Projected EPS (10yr)
- Sticker Price (10yr)
- Price for 15% Annual Return
- Expected Annual Return
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Not investment advice — a structured read of historical fundamentals, not a forecast or recommendation. Always do your own research.
Exhibit C Raw Data (last 10 years)
| Metric | Trend | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book Value / ShareBV/S | $13.13 | $1.66 | $4.65 | $3.55 | $6.72 | $32.82 | $45.97 | $36.27 | $28.39 | $22.24 | $17.07 | |
| Basic EPSEPS | -$3.79 | -$0.72 | -$1.17 | -$1.55 | -$1.96 | $30.31 | $21.26 | -$12.34 | -$9.27 | -$7.26 | -$7.98 | |
| RevenueRevenue | $108,396,000 | $205,825,000 | $135,068,000 | $60,209,000 | $803,395,000 | $17,736,000,000 | $18,875,000,000 | $6,848,000,000 | $3,199,000,000 | $1,944,000,000 | $2,228,000,000 | |
| Free Cash FlowCash Flow | $33,590,000 | $-389,885,000 | $-436,631,000 | $-490,522,000 | $1,959,523,000 | $13,336,000,000 | $4,581,000,000 | $-3,825,000,000 | $-4,055,000,000 | $-2,065,000,000 | $-1,223,000,000 | |
| ROIC (%)ROIC | -17.8% | -30.2% | -27.0% | -37.7% | -25.6% | 77.5% | 38.9% | -27.5% | -32.5% | -29.7% | — |
The exact underlying data used to compute the growth rates and grades above. The highlighted TTM column is the trailing twelve months through the most recently reported quarter.
Ticker INVESTigator Price Target
Analyst Data
Price Target
Where the stock trades today vs. the range of 12-month price targets from covering analysts.
29 firms rate it — 8 buy, 15 hold, 6 sell · Most recent Sep 2026
MRNA Stock FAQ
What is MRNA's stock price target?
The average 12-month analyst price target for MRNA is $115.70, with a range of $25.00 to $245.00. That is −39.5% from the current price of $191.33.
Do analysts rate MRNA a buy?
Opinion is mixed. Of 29 firms covering Moderna, the ratings are 8 buy or strong buy, 15 hold and 6 sell or strong sell.
How fast is Moderna growing?
Annual growth rates for MRNA. EPS: -54.1% over 5 years, -6.0% over 1 year. Revenue: 19.3% over 5 years, -27.2% over 1 year. Free cash flow: -41.1% over 5 years, 65.1% over 1 year. Book value per share: 27.1% over 5 years, -29.5% over 1 year.
What is MRNA's ROIC?
Moderna's return on invested capital (ROIC) was -29.7% in fiscal 2025. Its 10-year average ROIC is -11.1%. ROIC above 10% is generally a sign of a business with a durable competitive advantage.
What is MRNA's P/E ratio?
MRNA has no meaningful P/E ratio right now because its earnings are negative. Trailing earnings per share are -$7.98.
What is Moderna's market cap and stock price?
MRNA last traded at $191.33 as of October 5, 2026. Its 52-week range is $22.28 to $208.90. Moderna has a market cap of $75.39B.
Exhibit D Related Coverage
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Data as of October 5, 2026. Findings are derived from historical fundamentals — not a forecast, not advice. Cross-examine before you invest.
Grades are produced by Ticker INVESTigator's own model from public financial data and are for informational and educational purposes only. They are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research.