The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Stock Analysis
Over the past 10 years, Progressive (PGR) earnings per share (EPS) grew 24.5% a year, revenue grew 15.5% a year and free cash flow grew 23.0% a year, with an average return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.0%. PGR stock trades at $218.49, a P/E of 11.0, below its historical average of 34.9. Analysts' average 12-month price target is $222.92 (+2.0%).
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States.
Exhibit A Growth Dossier
| Metric | 10yr | 5yr | 1yr | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book Value/Share GrowthBV/S | 15.3% | 12.2% | -86.2% | F |
| EPS GrowthEPS | 24.5% | 14.7% | 8.9% | A- |
| Revenue GrowthRevenue | 15.5% | 15.5% | 7.7% | A- |
| Cash Flow GrowthCash Flow | 23.0% | 20.8% | -3.2% | B+ |
| ROICROIC | 9.0% | 11.6% | 20.7% | A- |
Exhibit B Valuation Ledger
- Current EPS
- $19.90
- Historical Avg P/E
- 34.9
- Future P/E (used for sticker price)
- Projected EPS (10yr)
- Sticker Price (10yr)
- Price for 15% Annual Return
- Expected Annual Return
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Not investment advice — a structured read of historical fundamentals, not a forecast or recommendation. Always do your own research.
Exhibit C Raw Data (last 10 years)
| Metric | Trend | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book Value / ShareBV/S | $12.37 | $13.60 | $15.85 | $18.45 | $23.29 | $29.00 | $31.05 | $27.07 | $34.51 | $43.54 | $51.55 | $8.29 | |
| Basic EPSEPS | $2.16 | $1.77 | $2.74 | $4.49 | $6.75 | $9.71 | $5.69 | $1.19 | $6.61 | $14.45 | $19.29 | $19.90 | |
| RevenueRevenue | $20,831,900,000 | $23,417,400,000 | $26,816,100,000 | $31,954,700,000 | $38,997,700,000 | $42,638,100,000 | $47,676,500,000 | $49,587,000,000 | $62,083,000,000 | $75,343,000,000 | $87,637,000,000 | $91,717,000,000 | |
| Free Cash FlowCash Flow | $2,162,200,000 | $2,486,900,000 | $3,601,100,000 | $6,018,800,000 | $5,898,100,000 | $6,682,100,000 | $7,518,200,000 | $6,556,800,000 | $10,391,300,000 | $14,834,000,000 | $17,200,000,000 | $15,951,000,000 | |
| ROIC (%)ROIC | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 11.4% | 19.8% | 20.7% | — |
The exact underlying data used to compute the growth rates and grades above. The highlighted TTM column is the trailing twelve months through the most recently reported quarter.
Ticker INVESTigator Price Target
Analyst Data
Price Target
Where the stock trades today vs. the range of 12-month price targets from covering analysts.
42 firms rate it — 16 buy, 22 hold, 4 sell · Most recent Oct 2026
PGR Stock FAQ
What is PGR's stock price target?
The average 12-month analyst price target for PGR is $222.92, with a range of $196.00 to $245.00. That is +2.0% from the current price of $218.49.
Do analysts rate PGR a buy?
Opinion is mixed. Of 42 firms covering Progressive, the ratings are 16 buy or strong buy, 22 hold and 4 sell or strong sell.
How fast is Progressive growing?
Annual growth rates for PGR. EPS: 24.5% over 10 years, 14.7% over 5 years, 8.9% over 1 year. Revenue: 15.5% over 10 years, 15.5% over 5 years, 7.7% over 1 year. Free cash flow: 23.0% over 10 years, 20.8% over 5 years, -3.2% over 1 year. Book value per share: 15.3% over 10 years, 12.2% over 5 years, -86.2% over 1 year.
What is PGR's ROIC?
Progressive's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 20.7% in fiscal 2025. Its 10-year average ROIC is 9.0%. ROIC above 10% is generally a sign of a business with a durable competitive advantage.
What is PGR's P/E ratio?
PGR's current P/E ratio is 11.0, compared with a historical average of 34.9. Trailing earnings per share are $19.90.
What is Progressive's market cap and stock price?
PGR last traded at $218.49 as of October 19, 2026. Its 52-week range is $189.20 to $239.38. Progressive has a market cap of $126.96B.
Exhibit D Related Coverage
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Data as of October 19, 2026. Findings are derived from historical fundamentals — not a forecast, not advice. Cross-examine before you invest.
Grades are produced by Ticker INVESTigator's own model from public financial data and are for informational and educational purposes only. They are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research.